أبوسلطان
07-10-2009, 09:51 PM
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
والصلاة والسلام على رسول الهدى والايمان محمد بن عبدالله وآله وصحبه ومن والاه
لقد أخذتنا بعض المشاغل بالاضافة إلى فتور أحوال الطقس بعض الوقت عنكم يا أخوان، والحمدلله على كل حال وسنتواصل معكم بإذن الله بين الفينة والآخرى على آمل أن يتجدد اللقاء بشكل أكبر.
أخواني أحببت أن أبشركم بأخر نتائج أبحاث مراكز التنبؤات الجوية للمناخ حول ولادة ظاهرة النينو بإذن الله تعالى، حيث تشير معظم تلك المراكز إلى إحتمال تأثر أجاء كبير من النصف من الكرة الشمالي بتلك الظاهرة الجميلة مسببة بأمر الله سبحانه فيضانات وأعاصير في مناطق (كأمريكا والبيرو وأوربا) وجفاف في مناطق أخرى (مثل أندنوسيا) . وقد بداءت مؤشرات تلك الظاهرة من حيث أرتفاع درجة المحيط الهادي (المقابل لسواحل البرازيل وبيرو) مابين درجة واحدة إلى 4 درجات، ضعف في الرياح التجارية وزيادة ملحوظة في كثافة السحب على خط الاستواء .
هذا وقد أصدر مركز تنبؤات المناخ الأمريكي تحذيراً بهذا الخصوص:
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso-alert-readme.shtml)
Synopsis: El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010
During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest weekly departures exceeding +1.0°C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure1.gif)). All of the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.9°C (Fig. 2 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure2.gif)). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure3.gif)) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure4.gif)). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere indicates the development of El Niño conditions.
Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure5.gif)) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter
Expected El Niño impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter. El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml) issued in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the
highest probabilities for a near-average season
والصلاة والسلام على رسول الهدى والايمان محمد بن عبدالله وآله وصحبه ومن والاه
لقد أخذتنا بعض المشاغل بالاضافة إلى فتور أحوال الطقس بعض الوقت عنكم يا أخوان، والحمدلله على كل حال وسنتواصل معكم بإذن الله بين الفينة والآخرى على آمل أن يتجدد اللقاء بشكل أكبر.
أخواني أحببت أن أبشركم بأخر نتائج أبحاث مراكز التنبؤات الجوية للمناخ حول ولادة ظاهرة النينو بإذن الله تعالى، حيث تشير معظم تلك المراكز إلى إحتمال تأثر أجاء كبير من النصف من الكرة الشمالي بتلك الظاهرة الجميلة مسببة بأمر الله سبحانه فيضانات وأعاصير في مناطق (كأمريكا والبيرو وأوربا) وجفاف في مناطق أخرى (مثل أندنوسيا) . وقد بداءت مؤشرات تلك الظاهرة من حيث أرتفاع درجة المحيط الهادي (المقابل لسواحل البرازيل وبيرو) مابين درجة واحدة إلى 4 درجات، ضعف في الرياح التجارية وزيادة ملحوظة في كثافة السحب على خط الاستواء .
هذا وقد أصدر مركز تنبؤات المناخ الأمريكي تحذيراً بهذا الخصوص:
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/enso-alert-readme.shtml)
Synopsis: El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010
During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest weekly departures exceeding +1.0°C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure1.gif)). All of the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.9°C (Fig. 2 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure2.gif)). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure3.gif)) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure4.gif)). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere indicates the development of El Niño conditions.
Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5 (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure5.gif)) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter
Expected El Niño impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter. El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml) issued in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the
highest probabilities for a near-average season